From the founders: it isn't the rates
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Our 2026 Operators Report asked more than 1,000 real estate professionals what's stalling buyers. The answer wasn't interest rates. It was economic uncertainty, by a wide margin. |
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And the worry is earned. The economy just posted its best quarter in years, then Washington announced 50% tariffs on a targeted set of Canadian exports that land August 19. A client who wants to see how that shakes out isn't being timid.
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That matters when the rate question comes up, because the relief they're waiting for isn't on the schedule. Investors expect the Bank to sit still for months, and what they are betting on after that is close to three increases by the end of 2027. |
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So waiting has a cost. Your client might buy cheaper later, but the same wait puts them in front of rates more likely to rise than fall. Name that trade out loud. Then ask what else is on their mind, because the rate was probably never the real answer.
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Joel Fox
COO
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The library: where deals run into trouble
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New explainers from our blog you can forward. Send the one that matches what your client is worried about.
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Why real estate deals fall through in Ontario. A status certificate surprise, a low appraisal, a sale-of-home condition that never fires. The full list, and where each one leaves your client. For the buyer who just got a low appraisal.
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Hot off the press: Ownright in the news
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Where Ownright's perspective showed up in the press this cycle:
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The Globe and Mail: Asked how parents should handle an adult child living at home, Joel argued for charging a share of the household bills rather than flat rent, so the child sees what a household really costs and how much it moves.
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Toronto Sun: Joel makes the case that seniors with nowhere suitable to downsize into stay put, and that the lost turnover lands on move-up buyers and first-timers behind them.
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RENX: Joel's monthly column, flagging the Bank of Canada estimate that about 9% of Toronto-area borrowers renewing in 2027 could struggle to refinance at current home prices, compared with 4% nationally.
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Market snapshot: the tightening hasn't reached price
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GTA sales held at 5,995, down 0.9% from last July, while new listings fell 17.8% to 14,484. Sales took 41.4% of new listings, up from 34.3% a year ago.
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Prices kept easing anyway: the HPI benchmark was down 4.6% and the average price $1,003,956, down 4.5%. Homes took 45 days to sell, five more than last July.
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CMHC's July 22 baseline puts 2026 national sales at 457,200 and the average price at $675,200, both below 2025 levels.
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It calls activity weaker than expected so far this year, and expects prices to decline through 2026 before growing only modestly after.
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Our take: We called a price floor last issue. July argues against it: supply tightened sharply and the benchmark still fell. One tighter month is not a turn, and the earliest CMHC sees national prices growing again is 2027.
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Client spotlight: in their words
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Ben and team were awesome right from the beginning. The app made the experience very easy and seamless. The team was also very responsive to all of our questions with prompt responses. This is the second time I've used Ben and team to represent us with closing our home. Highly recommend their services.
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The Ownright advantage
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Have a client in need of a real estate lawyer?
We'd love to support them.
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