Sales have climbed four months running while prices keep sliding. Here's what that gap means for your move.
Realty Check Issue 18

From the founders: the sales move first

Home sales have climbed for four months running across the country, even while prices here are still down. Two numbers, pointing opposite ways.
That doesn't mean the market is back. It means activity moves before price does, the way it usually does, and more homes are trading here than in a normal summer while the local benchmark keeps easing. Sales are the fast signal. Price is the slow one.
That matters whether you're buying or selling. If you're waiting for the benchmark to rise before you sell, you're watching the slowest signal there is. If you're holding out for a lower bottom to buy, you're competing with demand that's quietly returned, even while the price keeps falling.
None of this means you should rush. It means the clearest read of the market is in what's selling, not in the price tag, so your move can start with that picture instead of a guess.
Joel Fox

Joel Fox

COO

The library: worth a read

library
Fresh explainers from our blog, in plain English. Read the one that fits where you are right now.
Selling a house with a mortgage in Ontario. The mortgage comes out of the sale proceeds at closing, so it never blocks a sale. Covers the prepayment penalty and a shortfall if the price won't clear the balance. Read it if you're selling with a mortgage still on the home.
Transferring property title to a family member in Ontario. A gift usually attracts no land transfer tax, but the CRA still treats it as a sale at fair market value, so capital gains can apply. Worth a read if you're thinking of gifting a home or adding a child to title.
Assuming a mortgage in Ontario. Taking over a seller's fixed rate can work, but only if the mortgage is assumable and the lender approves you. You still fund the seller's equity and pay land transfer tax on the full price. Useful if you're eyeing a home with a cheap locked-in rate.

Hot off the press: Ownright in the news

press
Joel's read on the market ran in trade coverage this cycle:
CMP - What BoC rate hikes would mean for Canada's housing market: Joel said another rate increase would be an additional negative force on a market that wasn't overly optimistic to begin with.
CMP - Political, economic risks cloud Canada's housing market outlook: Joel pinned the market's drag on cross-border economic uncertainty, and said the buyers now sitting it out will eventually decide there's no perfect time to jump in.

Market snapshot: activity firming, prices still soft

market
  • Ontario sales were 16,276 in July, down 1.3% from a year ago but 7.3% above the five-year average for the month.
  • The MLS HPI benchmark was $749,800, down 3.9% year over year, and the total value of sales fell 4.2%.
  • National sales edged up 0.5% in July, a fourth consecutive monthly rise, though activity was still 5.3% below last July.
  • The national HPI ticked up 0.1% from June, its first monthly gain since November 2024, and the average price held at $674,819.
Our take: Sales have risen four months running, and the national benchmark just posted its first monthly uptick since November 2024. Ontario's is still down nearly 4% on the year, though. Activity picks up before price does, and here it hasn't turned yet.

Client spotlight: in their words

Quote The communication and process was seamless. Loved the online dashboard where we would get prompted on tasks we had to complete but also updates on the process as a whole. Our web call with the lawyer was super, and his execution on us securing our new house asap was fantastic! I would recommend Ownright wholeheartedly.
B
Ben
Buyer · Google review · August 2026

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